US stock market futures are moving higher again, but investors remain cautious. The key question now is whether the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq can hold gains or turn lower after President Donald Trump delivers his national address.

After posting one of the biggest one-day gains in months, Wall Street is seeing renewed optimism. Hopes of easing tensions in the Iran conflict, falling oil prices and improving global sentiment have lifted futures. However, uncertainty around geopolitics, inflation and Federal Reserve policy continues to keep markets on edge.

Why are US stock market futures rising?

The rally is largely driven by expectations that tensions linked to the Iran conflict may move toward negotiations and de-escalation.

Recent comments from US officials have reduced fears of a prolonged conflict, easing concerns about oil supply disruptions and broader global stability.

  • Dow futures rose around 0.4%
  • S&P 500 futures gained about 0.4%
  • Nasdaq futures climbed roughly 0.6%

Lower oil prices have also supported markets, with crude falling nearly 3%, helping ease inflation concerns and boosting investor sentiment.

Global markets support the rally

The positive trend is not limited to the US. Global markets also moved higher amid improving sentiment.

  • Europe’s STOXX 600 gained over 2%
  • Japan’s Nikkei rose about 5%
  • South Korea’s Kospi surged strongly

Investors are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, as stability in this key oil route helps reduce energy price risks.

Will the rally continue after Trump’s address?

Market participants are now focused on Trump’s scheduled 9 p.m. ET address, which could drive short-term direction in global markets.

If the speech signals de-escalation and stability, stocks could extend gains. However, a more aggressive tone or new uncertainty could trigger a market pullback.

Despite the rebound, the broader trend remains fragile.

  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently recorded steep monthly declines
  • The Dow posted its biggest drop since 2022

This highlights ongoing volatility and sensitivity to geopolitical headlines.

Stocks to watch right now

  • Nike dropped over 10% after weak sales outlook
  • RH fell sharply following disappointing earnings
  • nCino surged more than 20% after strong guidance

Energy stocks also declined as oil prices dropped, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron both trading lower.

Market outlook and key risks

Analysts say optimism is improving, but risks remain. Any resolution in the conflict may take time, and energy markets could stay volatile.

Investors are also tracking key data tied to the US economy, including payrolls, retail sales and Federal Reserve commentary.

How Fed policy could shape the next move

Interest rate expectations have shifted amid inflation concerns linked to oil prices and geopolitical tensions.

Earlier expectations of rate cuts have become less certain, making Fed signals critical for market direction.

What should investors do now?

Investors should remain cautious as markets react to geopolitical developments, economic data and policy signals.

Short-term volatility is likely to continue, especially around major announcements like Trump’s address.

FAQs

What moves US stock futures?

They are influenced by global markets, geopolitical news, economic data, earnings and central bank signals.

Can a Trump speech affect markets?

Yes, major political announcements can quickly shift investor sentiment and market direction.